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Iran is a more likely source of new supply.
The country's negotiators are trying to strike a deal with America that would lift economic sanctions in return for limits on its nuclear ambitions.
If they succeed, Iran could add around 1m barrels a day to the market by the end of the year; it could also sell the 200m barrels it currently has in storage.
Chris Midgley of s&p Global Platts, a data firm, points out that Saudi officials do not want a replay of 2018,
when America's decision not to reimpose oil sanctions on Iran took them by surprise and sent oil prices lurching downwards.
What, then, to expect from the cartel and its allies? There are three scenarios.
One is that countries start producing whatever they want, a price war ensues, and oil prices tumble. Analysts reckon that this is the least likely outcome.
Energy ministers still bear the scars of the ill-timed price war of March 2020, when Russia and Saudi Arabia failed to agree on production cuts.
The market was flooded with oil just before demand suffered its covid-induced collapse.
Another possibility is that a new deal fails to be struck, and that countries stick to their current quotas.
That would mean the extra post-July production increases that the market had been expecting do not materialise.
伊朗是一个更有可能的新供应来源。
该国的谈判代表正试图与美国达成一项协议以解除对其核野心的经济制裁作为交换条件。
如果他们成功了,到今年年底伊朗可以每天向市场增加100万桶原油。它还可以出售目前储存的2亿桶石油。
标准普尔全球普氏能源信息公司的克里斯・米德格利指出,沙特官员不想重蹈2018年的覆辙,
当时美国决定不重新对伊朗实施石油制裁令他们感到意外并导致油价暴跌。
那么,我们能从卡特尔及其盟友那里期待什么呢?有三种情况。
一是各国开始生产他们想要的东西,随之而来的是价格战,油价暴跌。分析人士认为这是最不可能的结果。
2020年3月,俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯未能就减产达成一致,当时不合时机的价格战给能源部长们留下了伤疤。
就在新冠肺炎导致需求崩溃之前,市场上石油量充足。
另一种可能性是,新协议无法达成,各国将坚持现有配额。
这将意味着市场此前预期的7月后额外的产量增长不会出现。
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