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And in many cases, I've had people say to me, why doesn't the President do, you know,
an Oval Office address where we can sort of see his heart on these issues when it comes to racial injustice,
when it comes to the fear that people have that the Coronavirus is coming back,
that it is emerging in places that people hoped it would not emerge at this point.
They want a connection with the President that in many ways they feel they're not getting.
And we're seeing it in a lot of this polling that we're seeing.
So, regardless of the fact that you can list things that you feel make the case,
the connection with what people are seeing and understanding appears to be slipping.
Well, the polls are about a horse race numbers.
And let's be fair, these polls are precisely where I think they would be right now in that when you look at The New York Times,
state race polls, they're both within a few points of each other and they're both under 50 percent by and large.
Now, if you look at a state like Wisconsin, which Donald Trump won as the first Republican to win it since 1984, last time Hillary all but ignored it.
The methodology The New York Times used this time was fundamentally different.
The Republican versus Democratic self-identification was one-point different last time. Now, it was plus seven Democratic.
That's important, Martha, because if you're a Democrat, you're gonna be over 85, 90 percent for Joe Biden.
Same thing with Republicans. So, if your sample is seven points shy of what it was last time, that's going to affect the polls.
But Joe Biden is not above 50 percent for a very significant reason. He hasn't made a compelling case.
All right. So, you're saying you don't believe these polls. More disruption. No, I didn't say that, Martha. I did not say that.
在许多场合都有人会和我说,为什么总统先生不
在总统办公室讲话,这样我们就可以看出他对这些问题的看法,比如种族不平等
以及人们害怕新冠病毒再次出现,
这种病毒在人们不希望此时出现的地方冒头了。
他们想与总统先生有联系,而在许多方面上他们都觉得并没有联系。
而且我们还在民调支持率中看到了这一点。
除去你认为列出这些事项是有理由的,
人们看到的和理解的联系变得不紧密了。
民调就像赛马号码一样。
公平地说,民调支持率恰好和我想的一样,我们可以看《纽约时报》
和州民调,它们相差了几个百分点,总的来说,它们都在50%以下。
现在如果你看看威斯康星州,唐纳德・特朗普是自1984年以来第一个赢得该州的共和党人,上一次是希拉里,忽略吧。
《纽约时报》这一次用的方法是根本不同的。
上一次,共和党和民主党的自我认同在1个点上是有分歧的。现在共和党又多了7个点。
这很重要,玛莎,因为如果你是个民主党人,你有85%、90%的可能性会投票给乔・拜登。
共和党人也是这样。因此,如果你的抽样比上次低了7个点,这就会影响到民调。
但乔・拜登没有超过50%重要原因是,他没有提出有理有据的说法。
好吧。所以你是说你不相信这些民调。更多的破坏。不,我没有这么说,玛莎,我没有这么说。
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