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All this suggests that the number of infected people unwittingly infecting others could be quite large.
What is unclear is how infectious these people actually are.
That is what the second strand of research on the asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission of SARS-COV-2 deals with.
It draws on various laboratory studies.
In several of these the amount of the virus in nasal and throat swabs taken from infected people
who were presenting no symptoms at the time was similar to the amount found in those who had symptoms.
Indeed, for those who do go on to develop symptoms, the amount of virus they have in them peaks close to the onset of those symptoms,
which suggests that it may be easily transmissible at an early stage of infection.
As a persistent cough is a common symptom, it might be expected that those who are symptomatic are more effective in spreading the virus than those who are not.
Contrariwise, however, those with symptoms often feel unwell and take to their beds.
They are, therefore, coughing mainly onto their sheets and blankets rather than onto strangers in the street.
The third strand of research into the question of silent spreading is mathematical modelling.
One such study was published in Science on March 31st by Luca Ferretti of Oxford University and his colleagues.
It used data on 40 infected people for whom the source of their infection was known with high probability,
所有这些都表明,被感染者的人数可能相当庞大。
现在还不清楚这些人到底有多大的传染性。
这是关于SARS-COV-2无症状和症状前传染的第二部分研究。
它利用了各种实验室研究。
在其中几个研究中,从无症状感染者鼻腔和咽喉拭子中采集的病毒量
和那些有症状的人的病毒量相似。
确实,对于那些继续出现症状的人来说,他们体内的病毒数量在这些症状出现之前达到顶峰,
这表明在感染的早期阶段,它可能极易传播。
持续的咳嗽是一种常见的症状,因此有症状的人比没有症状的人更能有效地传播病毒。
但相反,那些有症状的病人通常会因为不舒服而卧床休息。
因此,他们主要是对着床单和毯子咳嗽,而不是对着街上的陌生人。
关于寂静传染问题研究的第三部分是数学建模。
牛津大学的Luca Ferretti和他的同事在3月31日的《科学》杂志上发表了一项这样的研究。
该研究40名感染患者的数据,这些患者的感染源基本已知,
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