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This is Scientific American ― 60-Second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.
There are now more than 16 million bitcoins in circulation, with a total market cap of 130 billion dollars―
more than the market value of Netflix, Priceline or Starbucks.
Just going by numbers, bitcoin is the one coin to rule them all.
But if you consider the spectrum of 600 actively traded cryptocoins as a financial ecosystem...
you can take an evolutionary approach, and ask: which is the 'fittest' of the coins?
Or, in other words: "Every cryptocurrency, bitcoin, ethereum, there are many...are a different species."
Andrea Baronchelli, a network scientist at City, University of London.
He and his team used evolutionary models to approximate the real-world behavior of cryptocurrencies.
Each week of currency trading was treated as a new generation of progeny.
Reporting their results in the journal Royal Society Open Science,
they found that a so-called 'neutral' model of evolution best explained coin behavior...meaning no coin had a selective advantage.
Which implies that: "Investors choose which cryptocurrencies to invest in only proportional to the cryptocurrency's market share, and nothing else.
So they are not apparently considering other fundamentals
like the underlying technology or the purpose for which a certain cryptocurrency has been designed for.
They are just sampling each cryptocurrency proportional to its market share."
And only when investors begin to value coins for a particular attribute―
这里是科学美国人――60秒科学。我是克里斯托弗・因塔利亚塔。
目前在流通的比特币数量超过1600万,总市值达1300亿美元――
这比奈飞公司、旅游网站旅游网站和星巴克公司的市值都要高。
只从数量来说,比特币可以统治所有货币。
但是,如果将600种交易活跃加密货币当作一个金融系统来看,
那你可以采取渐进的方式,并询问:哪种货币最好?
或者换句话说,“加密货币、比特币、以太坊等等,很多不同种类的虚拟货币都在流通。”
伦敦大学的网络科学家安德里亚・巴伦凯利说道。
他和团队使用演化模型来模拟加密货币在真实世界的行为。
每周的货币交易都被视为新一代的产生。
他们将研究结果发表在《英国皇家学会学报・开放科学》期刊上,
他们发现,所谓的“中立”演化模型对货币的行为进行了最好的解释,这说明没有货币有选择优势。
这也暗示着:“投资者选择哪种加密货币进行投资,只与加密货币的市场份额成正比,与其他无关。
所以,显然他们并没有考虑其他基本因素,
比如基本技术或某种加密货币的设计目的等。
他们只是对每种加密货币的市场占有率进行抽样。”
只有当投资者开始重视货币的特定属性――
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